2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection

2024 Republican vice presidential nomination
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This article lists potential candidates for the Republican nomination for Vice President of the United States in the 2024 presidential election. Former president Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican presumptive nominee for President of the United States, selected his running mate in June 2024 and is expected to make an announcement before July.[1]

Background

Multiple reporters, political analysts and commentators have noted that former president Donald Trump selecting former vice president Mike Pence to be his running mate once again would be highly unlikely following rifts between the two over the future of the Republican Party and Pence's attempts to distance himself from Trump.[2][3][4] In June 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack found that Trump said Pence "deserved" calls to be hanged on the day of the attack.[5] Pence has stated that he has no interest in seeking the vice presidential nomination again[6] and chose not to endorse Trump.[7]

Trump's anticipated status as the presumptive nominee was solidified upon his victories in the Super Tuesday primaries, which saw Nikki Haley, his last remaining opposition, drop out the following day. Haley refused to endorse Trump, leaving her out of consideration in the view of multiple news and media outlets.[8] Trump became the presumptive nominee on March 12.[9]

Under the 12th Amendment, because Trump currently resides in Florida, if Trump's running mate also resided in Florida, Florida's electors could not vote for both Trump and his running mate in the electoral college. In 2000, when Texas Governor George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney, who also lived in Texas, Cheney changed his voter registration to Wyoming (where he represented the state in the House of Representatives in the 1980s) to prevent this issue from arising with Texas' critical electoral votes.[10]

Media speculation on possible candidates

Speculative shortlists by Trump have included various names,[11][12] and have evolved throughout the campaign. Trump's primary criterion for his running mate is loyalty, according to multiple sources.[13][14][15][16] In early 2024, Reuters reported that Trump has been encouraged by associates to consider a woman or black man as his running mate.[17][18][19]

Reportedly in 2022, Trump had "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[20] Greene also claimed that she had been in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[21] On March 6, 2023, multiple sources close to Trump, as reported by Axios, narrowed the list down to four major contenders: Nikki Haley; Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, former White House press secretary for Trump; Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota; and Kari Lake, candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 who lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs. On July 3, 2023, Politico reported that sources close to Sanders said that she was not interested in being chosen as the vice presidential nominee as "she intends to serve as governor for eight years."[22] On August 24, 2023, Trump in a media interview mentioned Noem, Governor Henry McMaster of South Carolina, and former primary opponent and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy as potential vice president picks.[23]

Trump acknowledged a total of six names on his vice presidential shortlist at a Fox News townhall with Laura Ingraham in February 2024: Kristi Noem, Vivek Ramaswawmy, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Representative Byron Donalds of Florida, and former Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.[24] Of those six, DeSantis declined to be considered that same month,[25] and while Ramaswamy was reportedly ruled out in March,[26] he was back in consideration as of May.[27] In March, Trump estimated that there were a total of 15 people on his shortlist in an interview with Newsmax. Three additional names were reported to have been revealed: former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Represenative Elise Stefanik of New York.[28] In late March, four others were added to the list: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, Senator Katie Britt of Alabama, and Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio.[29] The chances of Noem being selected reportedly waned in April 2024 because of her hardline stance on abortion and backlash to a revelation in her autobiography that she shot and killed her pet dog.[30][31][32] As of April 30, Sanders reportedly had "slipp[ed] down the list" for not endorsing Trump quickly enough. [33]

Federal executive branch officials

Members of Congress

Governors

Others

Declined to be considered

Ruled out by Trump

Shortlist

By June 2024, a shortlist of nine candidates emerged. Four of the candidates (Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott and J. D. Vance) were reportedly sent "vetting materials" (although Rubio himself has denied this), while the Trump campaign requested information from four others (Ben Carson, Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds and Elise Stefanik).[71][72][73] On June 13, 2024, Trump indicated that Glenn Youngkin was also on his shortlist.[74]

Reported shortlist

Along with the candidates listed above, the following were reportedly undergoing the vetting process in early June 2024:

Finalists

On June 21, NBC News reported the three finalists were Burgum, Rubio and Vance.[76] Burgum and Vance were said to be Trump's main focus in his running mate search, while complications were noted in Rubio as a choice due to his residency in Florida.[77]

Selection

On June 22, NBC News reported that Trump had selected his vice presidential running mate, and they will "most likely" be at the debate on June 27.[78]

Trump is expected to announce his selection at the Republican National Convention, though he may announce it earlier in July.[79]

Opinion polling

Vice presidential polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a]
Greg Abbott
Doug Burgum
Tucker Carlson
Ben Carson
Liz Cheney
Chris Christie
Tom Cotton
Ted Cruz
Ron DeSantis
Byron Donalds
Tulsi Gabbard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Nikki Haley
Josh Hawley
Larry Hogan
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kari Lake
Kristi Noem
Mike Pence
Mike Pompeo
Vivek Ramaswamy
Mitt Romney
Marco Rubio
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Rick Scott
Tim Scott
Elise Stefanik
Donald Trump Jr.
JD Vance
Others
Undecided
New York Post May 15–16, 2024 1,660 (RV) 3% 3% 4% 12% 3% 5% 4% 2% 8% 4% 9% 2% 3% 11% [b] 25%
YouGov February 26 – March 3, 2024 1,000 (A) 3% 8% 3% 13% 0% 11% 10% 1% 5% 7% 12% 4% 9% 2% 2% 11%[c] 9%
YouGov February 6–9, 2024 1,000 (A) 4% 8% 5% 18% 20% 3% 9% 4% 7% 6% 2% 4%[d] 11%
Morning Consult/Politico March 18–21, 2022 2,005 (RV) 8% 3% 1% 6% 14% 8% 1% 2% 1% 14% 2% 10% 3% 1% 2% 8% 17%[e]
Hypothetical polling
With Trump as the nominee
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of
error
Tudor Dixon
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Nikki Haley
Kari Lake
Kristi Noem
Mike Pence
Kim Reynolds
Tim Scott
Elise Stefanik
Others
NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ May 25–26, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3% 2% 6% 12% 5% 3% 15% 1% 13% 5% 38%[f]

In March 2023, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held a poll on vice president, Kari Lake topped the poll with 20%, Ron DeSantis on 14% and Nikki Haley on 10%.[80] Turning Point Action held a straw poll in July 2023 where Lake finished first with 30%, Byron Donalds in second with 24%, and Vivek Ramaswamy in third with 22%.[81]

The vice presidential straw poll held at CPAC in February 2024 saw Ramaswamy and Kristi Noem tied for first place with 15% each, with Tulsi Gabbard at second with 9%, followed by Elise Stefanik and Tim Scott with 8%. Donalds and Lake received 7% and 6% respectively, while DeSantis, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Ben Carson each earned 5% of the vote. Other candidates listed who did not reach 5% were Haley, Tucker Carlson, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and J. D. Vance.[82]

Notes

  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 17%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 38%

References

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